If Elon Musk’s Starship works – and there’s no reason it shouldn’t
– it will expand access to space to a degree that will seem
ludicrous. At present, getting into low earth orbit costs in the
neighborhood of a thousand dollars per kilogram. Starship could lower
that to tens of dollars per kilogram. At present, the number of
launches to orbit is in the double digits per year, with the larger
launchers delivering on the order of ten tons. Starship, with both
stages being fully reusable, could do more flights even just using a
single spacecraft; and it is so large that each flight could deliver
on the order of a hundred tons. And Elon is building not just one
Starship or four Starships but a factory for Starships; we saw
something of its production rate when Starships were being crashed on
what seemed like a monthly basis during landing tests. Multiply all
those factors together, and we’re talking perhaps a thousandfold
increase in launch capacity.
But what is to be done with all that capacity? Elon has been saying
that the idea is to colonize Mars, but how that would pay off is not
clear. Mars has a mere wisp of an atmosphere (and that mostly CO2)
and very little water. The soil is actively hostile to life (that
being one of the few things wrong with the movie The Martian: he
couldn’t have grown his crops). Living there would have to be done
inside a pressurized bubble, and would require most supplies to be
transported from Earth, at least until a very substantial local
economy had emerged. Even living in the most hostile desert on Earth
would be far easier. For a settlement to be viable, it would have to
export something to pay for all those imports – and no, Halliburton
isn’t going to drill for oil there, as some clowns were imagining when
Bush Jr proclaimed his Mars initiative: there probably isn’t oil on
Mars, and even if there were lakes of oil on Mars, it isn’t valuable
enough to pay the return freight, even at Starship rates.
But there is a different Mars that pays very well: Mars the god of war
– though he can be fickle.